Man City once stumbled in the greatest title race of all. This time looks different

There are still only two points in it: Manchester City 73, Arsenal 71, Liverpool 71. It’s not over yet. If the three keep pace for the next five games, it will still be the first season since 1971-72 in which three different sides go into their final game of the season with a chance of winning the title. The hope for anybody seeking a dramatic run-in is that this weekend was just the beginning of a final month of twists and turns. But the sense is that the race has taken a decisive shift towards City and a fourth successive title for Pep Guardiola’s team.

It’s not just that City swept Luton aside 5-1. You’d expect that; they beat them 6-2 in the FA Cup in February. Nor was it just the fact that Liverpool lost at home to Crystal Palace, the opponent Jürgen Klopp had beaten more than any other, or that Arsenal lost at home to Aston Villa, managed by their former manager Unai Emery, each detail twisting the knife in a little further. It was the way they lost, coming after the way Arsenal had played in drawing against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and the way Liverpool had played in losing to Atalanta in the Europa League.

Arsenal were cruising against Bayern when David Raya’s inexplicable charge from his goal put Gabriel under pressure, leading to the equaliser. Although they did, in the end, fight back to level that game, the sense on Sunday was of a side that still hadn’t regained their equilibrium; Arsenal remain an anxious team; dominant when the going is good, but prone to stumble when it is not. Liverpool’s problems are at both ends: 21 times this season they have conceded the first goal in a league game, which will always cause problems if the goals for some reason – lack of precision, loss of confidence,