We want to be candid about our hit rate with last year's column predicting turnaround candidates after the first wave of free agency. It was ... not good. Did the Falcons, Saints and Broncos turn it around in 2023? No, no and no. The Bears? Half credit. The Patriots and Jets? Laughably wrong. There was no mention of the Houston Texans, who, of course, executed the season's most stunning about-face, going from laughingstock to the playoffs in the space of one offseason. That's the power of smart drafting and a very good head coach.
The Texans give the NFL's downtrodden hope. Maybe it's folly to predict breakout teams more than a month before the draft, and especially so this year. Will Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels have the same instant impact as C.J. Stroud did in Houston? Which teams will try to maneuver to draft a quarterback high? No matter. With the buzz of free agency quieting down, we can at least see who might be in position to do much better in 2024. The Texans miss the list this year, too, because they are probably moving to another list: dark-horse Super Bowl picks.
Here are the teams who hope to follow in the footsteps of DeMeco Ryans and Co. in 2024:
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