Analysis | Could Lille have won Ligue 1 last season? The stats suggest so.

Despite PSG coasting to another underwhelming title, Ligue 1 was arguably more competitive than ever last season. Although a title race never really emerged, Lens finished just one point behind Paris, while Igor Tudor’s Marseille posted their best 18-game opening to a season this century. Monaco and Lyon, despite considerable talent, couldn’t even make it to Europe. Lille, however, quietly stood out as an outlier.

Understat’s Ligue 1 expected points table places Les Dogues at the top. Expected points are derived through thousands of simulations of games using expected goals data to determine the average number of points a team might have expected to win from each match. From their 38 league games, LOSC could have expected an average of 75.09 points. This puts Paulo Fonseca’s side ahead of PSG (74.01), Marseille (70.97), and Lens (69.41).

The model suggests that Lille underperformed by around eight points, while the rest of the top four overperformed – PSG by 10.99 points and Lens by 14.59. Only strugglers Strasbourg (+12.19) and Angers (+16.04) finished worse off than LOSC, who won the xG battle in 33 out of their 38 league games last season according to Understat. Strikingly, despite finishing tenth in the previous season, Lille’s xPTS tally of 66.82 was only one expected point less than their title-winning side of 20/21.

The suggested discrepancy between points and performances supports the feeling that Lille often impressed last season after an initial lack of balance and cohesion under Fonseca, which included a 7-1 thrashing by PSG. Striker Jonathan David maintained his form throughout the season, scoring 24 goals, while several younger players improved, such as Angel Gomes, who enjoyed a deeper midfield role.