Premier League predictions: 11/1 Crystal Palace too big to ignore to beat untrustworthy Arsenal

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Football Journalist

Friday 19 January 2024 19:34, UK

Our tipster Jones Knows sprinkles his analysis over the Premier League weekend and makes a case to back Crystal Palace to win at Arsenal.

Everything has its price. And the 11/1 with Sky Bet on a Crystal Palace away win has lured me in.

Arsenal, of course, are the most likely winners but to have their win probability at 80 per cent for a potentially tricky fixture and occasion just feels wrong. There is an expectation that Mikel Arteta's team will return from their Dubai break suitably tanned and refreshed to kickstart their title bid. I need to see evidence first before trusting them at 1/4 with Sky Bet.

A run of one win in their last seven fixtures across all competitions, scoring just five goals, is hard to ignore.

In forward areas, they've become stodgy and one-dimensional — something which is shown by their alarming tally of just 19 goals scored from open play from 20 games in the Premier League this season. It puts them 13th in that ranking across the league while their big chance creation from open play (39) — eight teams have recorded more — also very low for a team expected to challenge for the title.

Palace's basic and unspectacular approach of defending deep and in numbers is exactly the type of tactic Arsenal have struggled against at times this season.

West Ham have beaten them twice, Fulham took four points off them and Newcastle's 1-0 win at St James' Park was achieved courtesy of Arsenal being unable to find a way through Eddie Howe's defensive block. It