Super Bowl LVIII scouting report: Who has the edge in Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers?

For the third year in a row (SB LVI, SB LVII), Next Gen Stats research & analytics maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on crucial matchups in the Super Bowl.

Who holds the advantage in six key areas of Super Bowl LVIII: Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers? Check out the answers below.

In recent seasons, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs have pivoted from their earlier deep-ball dominance to a more nuanced passing game focused on shorter, more methodical throws. Between 2018 and 2021, Mahomes led all quarterbacks with 44 deep touchdown passes (20-plus air yards). Since 2022, he's thrown two (one in each season). In the absence of the vertical threat, Mahomes led all quarterbacks in completions (320) and touchdowns (19) on passes under 10 air yards in 2023. Fewer air yards = More YAC. No quarterback picked up more of his passing yards after the catch than Mahomes this season (63 percent). As defenses employ more split-safety coverages, the holes that open up in zone -- especially on plays that break down -- play to the strengths of Mahomes and his most reliable target, Travis Kelce.

Kelce's ability to find space and exploit zone coverage fuels the spectacular numbers he's posting at the age of 34. For the second consecutive season, Kelce led all tight ends with 767 receiving yards against zone coverage, while also topping the charts in expected points added when targeted (+27.3) and first downs converted (37) against zone. Kelce's importance is further magnified on extended plays, where he leads all pass catchers in receptions on dropbacks over four seconds (16). Rookie standout Rashee Rice has also emerged as a key contributor, particularly underneath and in the screen game. The second-round pick gained 186 receiving