NFL fantasy football stats & trends for Week 11: Press pause on Dak Prescott?

Each week, NFL fantasy researcher Joel Smyth will identify important stats and trends to inform fantasy decisions ahead of your next matchup. These won't be your basic, elementary stats, but rather deep and unique insights to give you an edge over your friends (and enemies).

Here are eight notable nuggets ahead of Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.

Surprise! Teams, and fantasy matchups, improve throughout the season. Sometimes a positional matchup ranking for the full year can lead you astray. Here are a few examples worth noting as we enter the homestretch.

If it feels like fantasy points are down this season, it's because they are. And it all starts with the quarterback. Starters are averaging a dismal 15.6 points per game, the fewest since 2017, and the lack of league-wide success increases the value of the few who are succeeding. Only three QBs are averaging more than 20 points (Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen), but I believe more are coming. A safe floor, high-ceiling quarterback is a must come fantasy playoff time. That's why I would recommend trading for proven superstars who have slightly underperformed, such as Patrick Mahomes. He has consistently averaged 20 points throughout his career.

Not all targets are created equal. For example, a red zone target -- unofficially sponsored by NFL RedZone -- is worth roughly three times the fantasy points of a throw outside the red area (3.5 fantasy points per target compared to 1.1). Davante Adams, Michael Pittman Jr. and Jake Ferguson lead the NFL in such targets entering Week 11, providing hope for Adams and evidence that Pittman's and Ferguson's production is here to stay. Three more notable players to mention: rookie wideouts Tank Dell, Rashee Rice and Zay