This week's European matches hold significant weight in determining which of the continent's top divisions will secure an extra Champions League place next season, with the Premier League's hopes in the balance following unexpected outcomes in the quarter-final first legs across Europe.
The expansion of the Champions League to 36 teams with a 'Swiss League' format means the top two countries in UEFA's coefficient rankings earn extra spots. Success at any level, not just the Champions League, earns bonus points.
Liverpool's surprising 3-0 loss to Atalanta at Anfield not only jeopardises their Europa League final hopes but also impacts England's chances of claiming the additional slot. Similarly, Arsenal's 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich at the Emirates diminishes England's prospects further.
Italy is likely to secure an additional slot, with Atalanta, Roma, AC Milan and Fiorentina contributing to their high coefficient.
Rank
Nation
2023/24 average coefficient
1.
Italy
18.428
2.
Germany
16.785
3.
England
16.750
4.
Spain
15.062
5.
France
14.750
England's chances are hindered by the progress of German teams, with the Bundesliga surpassing the Premier League's coefficient score.
West Ham's defeat to Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund's loss to Atletico Madrid further complicate matters. However, Aston Villa's Europa Conference League run bolsters England's standing.
Man City and Arsenal will meet in an all-English semi-final if they progress past Madrid and Bayern respectively, while the German giants could yet meet Dortmund in the Wembley final.
Opta has given England a 57.8% chance of securing the spot compared to Germany's 41.8%. If granted, eight Premier League teams could participate in Europe next season.
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