Why Arsenal and Man City can be confident that they will catch Tottenham in title race

Tottenham Hotspur have started the season in stellar fashion, currently sitting top of the pile after ten games. Spurs have accumulated 26 points from a possible 30, remaining one of just two clubs yet to taste defeat in the league this term.

The north Londoners are two points ahead of Arsenal and Manchester City, who are second and third respectively. There is no doubt the Ange Postecoglou revolution has been hugely impressive, especially when you consider that the Lillywhites finished down in eight last season.

However, the underlying data involving their defence suggests that they are considerably overperforming. A look at numbers from Understat shows that Tottenham have already conceded 12.92xGA (expected goals against) this term, the sixth least in the English top-flight.

When you compare that to how many goals they have actually conceded, which is currently nine, you see that the 3.92 differential is actually the second biggest in the league. This implies that Spurs have been quite fortunate when it comes to other teams finishing their chances against them this term.

Of course, the impressive performances of Guglielmo Vicario have helped keep shots out but Postecoglou's attacking system is clearly giving up too many chances for a title charge at this moment in time. In the nine seasons of Understat tracking these numbers, only two sides have ever won the title and not boasted the least xGA across the campaign.

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Those teams were Liverpool in 2019/20 and Leicester City in 2015/16, with the Reds still finishing in the top four for the metric whilst