Newcastle should top Premier League table | Liverpool above Arsenal and Man Utd in 11th

Newcastle should top Premier League table with 21 points, according to Opta Predicted Points; Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal complete top four; Chelsea surge into fifth spot, ahead of current league leaders Tottenham; Everton soar into a top-half standing; Man Utd slip into bottom half

Data and Analysis @AdamDatasmith

Wednesday 1 November 2023 15:02, UK

Who should top the Premier League table, based on the quantity and quality of chances in games?

Several games stand out as anomalies this season: Arsenal drew to Fulham, despite registering 2.64 more expected goals than their visitors. Everton lost to Luton, despite having 2.01 more xG. Chelsea lost to Nottingham Forest with 1.54 more xG.

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In fact, teams registering a higher xG than their opponents have failed to take all three points on 41 occasions this term — with 21 draws and 20 defeats.

Of course, xG has two decimal places — which means draws are almost impossible. However, Opta has simulated each game's xG scores 10,000 times to generate results and create a table with wins, defeats and draws.

So, which teams are punching above their weight and which have failed to live up to their potential?

Tottenham are flying high atop the Premier League table on 26 points from eight wins and two draws — two points clear of Arsenal — the only other undefeated side — and reigning champions Manchester City.

Liverpool are just one result away from levelling with Spurs, while Aston Villa sit in fifth — just one point shy of Jurgen Klopp's side. Newcastle have slipped nine points adrift from the summit after suffering three successive defeats following a 5-1 win over Villa on the opening weekend.

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