Manchester City’s Chelsea stumble highlights their obvious flaw

The assumption had been that Manchester City would beat Chelsea on Saturday and follow that up with victory over Brentford on Tuesday to move top of the Premier League table. They had won 11 in a row and there seemed no reason to think that would not become 13 and more; that’s just what City do at this time of year.

The only hope for their challengers seemed a tough run of games in March, when City face Manchester United, Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal and Aston Villa in successive league games; perhaps that run was a hurdle that could hinder City’s charge for a fifth Premier League title in six years. The question was how far ahead they would be by then. Now, though, so long as Liverpool beat Luton at home next week, City will not start that vital run of games with a lead.

Perhaps that doesn’t much matter: the key will still be City’s games away at Liverpool and at home to Arsenal next month. Win those, and the title should still be theirs. But that’s where the detail of Saturday kicks in: City weren’t actually very good. It’s true they won the game 2.6 to 1.4 by Opta’s xG model, and true also that Erling Haaland missed a hatful of chances (1.7xG’s worth, according to Opta), but it’s also the case that they conceded chance after chance on the break – in just the way Pep Guardiola teams always do when they’re vulnerable.

Nicolas Jackson and Raheem Sterling both missed one-on-ones in the first half before Sterling scored. Ederson made an excellent save to keep out a Sterling effort from a Jackson cross in the second half. And there were other moments when a more clinical team than Chelsea might have created opportunities: Ben Chilwell, in particular, had a golden chance to feed Jackson or Sterling an opening before